Should Australia consider nuclear weapons? The impacts and challenges

The debate on whether Australia should rethink its nuclear policy has been triggered recently as defence experts say the country is facing an increasing threat in the Asia Pacific region.

Australia signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty 50 years ago - a binding international agreement on nuclear disarmament. The country has since shown no intention of acquiring nuclear weapons.

Former Defence Department official Hugh White’s new book, How to defend Australia, reopens the discussion of Australia’s nuclear strategy amid the rise of China in the region.

Mr White said that the shift of the dominant power in the Asia Pacific region may undermine the US nuclear umbrella that provides extensive protection to Australia and other allies if they were nuclear deterred, which makes urgent for Australia to rethink its stance on nuclear weapons.

Paul Dibb, former defence intelligence official and emeritus professor of strategic studies of the Australian National University, however, does not agree with Mr White’s view that China is becoming the dominant power in the region.

“It is to acknowledge that for the first time since the Second World War, we have a country [China] operating in our region that increasingly has the military capabilities,” Professor Dibb told SBS Cantonese.

“Then you have to put into the equation: will China really do that to America’s closest ally in the Asia Pacific? My view is, they will not. The risk is too high for them.”

China's influence has grown in the Asia Pacific region over the past decade as it attempts to assert dominance over the South China Sea islands.

Last month, China reportedly conducted a ballistic missile testing near the Spratly Islands. The move was slammed by the Pentagon.

China’s recent anti-ship ballistic missile testing in the South China Sea poses a new challenge to the US and its regional allies and was seen as China’s bargaining chip in the trade talks with the US (AAP)

Dr Euan Graham, Executive Director of La Trobe Asia said China’s nuclear development is relatively restrained compared to that of the US and Russia.

But he said that may change if regional tensions grow. And without being nuclear-capable, Australia and other nations in the Asia Pacific might be at risk.

“China can use that [nuclear] threat as leverage in a crisis because China can escalate and increase the threat ladder than a non-nuclear country would be able to. So in that scenario in which Australia has its own nuclear deterrent, it would be a guarantee against a direct attack on Australian territory.”

Yet Dr Graham believes that the use of nuclear power would be the nation’s “last resort” in an extreme military encounter. He said a potential Australian bid to go nuclear would pose huge regional implications and may provoke neighbours like Indonesia to follow suit.

Since Mr White suggested that the nation revisit its nuclear policy, bipartisan officials reaffirmed Australia's stance on nuclear proliferation, saying the nation as a non-nuclear power would continue committing to its pledge in the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Australia has indeed considered the possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons when Robert Menzies was the Prime Minister 60 years ago.

Approved by Prime Minister Robert Menzies, Britain tested its first atomic bomb in Western Australia in the 1950s (BBC).

But how capable is Australia?

Some experts doubt whether Australia could successfully produce nuclear weapons, not to mention the amount of money and time the country has to invest.

“Developing and sustaining modern nuclear weapons requires a certain combination of technologies and industries that Australia simply does not have. In fact, it may be safely estimated on the basis of approval and construction times for nuclear power reactors in other western countries that it would take some 20 years to establish such capabilities in the present legal and economic environment,” wrote UNSW physics professor Heiko Timmers in a recent article.

Mr White in his book suggests that Australia’s defence spending must increase from 2 per cent to 3.5 per cent of GDP, an extra $30 billion a year in order for it to be self-reliant in potential threats.

Prob Dibb does not believe nuclear is the best solution to solve regional conflicts.

“Very few of those countries [in the Asia Pacific] want confrontation with China, but they’re well aware that the Chinese have thrown down about influence in the Asia Pacific region,” Prof Dibb said.

“I think we will be seeing flexible and quite quickly move in multilateral agreements at various levels in the region amongst the major powers.”

READ FULL STORY ON SBS CANTONESE: https://www.sbs.com.au/yourlanguage/cantonese/en/article/2019/07/19/should-australia-consider-nuclear-weapons-impacts-and-challenges